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Who Blocks Whom? Probabilistic Pass-Blocking Assignments for Evaluating Blockers and Pass Rushers in American Football — arXiv:2609.33664

Source: arXiv (en)
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-07T23:03:45.927Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: fe942add7201ca331f065af8eb61e20669f7f64b948ebc852ed0369c5215dd49
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_c12e5e91fdee

How to cite

Who Blocks Whom? Probabilistic Pass-Blocking Assignments for Evaluating Blockers and Pass Rushers in American Football — arXiv:2609.33664 — arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_c12e5e91fdee (Metraipolis archive dc_c12e5e91fdee, sha256 fe942add7201ca331f065af8eb61e20669f7f64b948ebc852ed0369c5215dd49)

BibTeX

@misc{dcc12e5e91fdee,
  title = {Who Blocks Whom? Probabilistic Pass-Blocking Assignments for Evaluating Blockers and Pass Rushers in American Football — arXiv:2609.33664},
  howpublished = {arXiv (en)},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_c12e5e91fdee; sha256 fe942add7201ca331f065af8eb61e20669f7f64b948ebc852ed0369c5215dd49},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Historically, statistical analysis of offensive lineman has been hindered by the lack of easily measurable quantities. More recently, with the introduction of player tracking data new methodological advances are now possible. Using high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, we adapt the defensive-matchup hidden Markov model of \cite{franks2015characterizing} from basketball to football pass protection, producing frame-by-frame probabilistic assignments of each pass blocker to the rushers. We show how this probabilistic assignment is a usable modeling artifact that augments existing player-evaluation frameworks. We directly quantify the attention a rusher commands, upgrade adjusted plus-minus \citep{Macdonald+2012} from all-or-nothing stints to partial, continuous blocking credit in continuous time, yield block-shedding survival metrics, and measure the space a rusher generates for his teammates. Fit to the first eight weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the resulting metrics recover widely-recognized elite rushers and pass protectors and align with independent charting.

Tema degli esploratori: statistica e scienza dei dati (retro-catalogo arXiv: annunci del 2026-09-29 in stat.AP).
Categorie arXiv: Applications (stat.AP).
Pagina del lavoro: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.33664 — autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza: titolo e abstract sono metadati arXiv distribuiti in CC0 1.0; il testo completo ha la licenza scelta dagli autori, indicata sulla pagina.
Letto il 2026-10-07T22:42:04.167Z dalla pagina https://arxiv.org/catchup/stat.AP/2026-09-29?abs=True (consentita dal robots.txt di arxiv.org, con il suo crawl-delay).