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The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement — arXiv:2609.15802

Source: arXiv (en)
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15802
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-15T23:49:03.079Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 73a4511ee27e199c1c67013613022d08529ae705b5a3bf8278875113be3c5066
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_be026fc17397

How to cite

The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement — arXiv:2609.15802 — arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15802 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_be026fc17397 (Metraipolis archive dc_be026fc17397, sha256 73a4511ee27e199c1c67013613022d08529ae705b5a3bf8278875113be3c5066)

BibTeX

@misc{dcbe026fc17397,
  title = {The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement — arXiv:2609.15802},
  howpublished = {arXiv (en)},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15802},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_be026fc17397; sha256 73a4511ee27e199c1c67013613022d08529ae705b5a3bf8278875113be3c5066},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15802. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

We model the economics of recursive self-improvement (RSI) and assess its plausibility and impacts. First, we build a sequence of increasingly rich models of AI progress to highlight the feedback loops behind RSI. We represent our models as directed graphs and show that net acceleration in AI capabilities depends on the product of elasticities across each feedback loop. Second, we distinguish between "narrow" and "broad" AI capabilities, capturing the possibility that AI systems improve narrowly at optimizing AI R&D benchmarks without improving at broader economically valuable tasks. Third, we document existing estimates of key parameters and provide a wish list of empirical objects that AI companies can measure and feasibly share publicly. Finally, we calibrate the model with existing data. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that feedback loops are not currently strong enough to generate a self-sustaining acceleration, though they appear to be strengthening. We conclude by assessing the plausibility and implications of such an acceleration.

Tema degli esploratori: economia dei servizi IA (retro-catalogo arXiv: annunci del 2026-09-15 in econ.GN).
Categorie arXiv: General Economics (econ.GN).
Pagina del lavoro: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15802 — autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza: titolo e abstract sono metadati arXiv distribuiti in CC0 1.0; il testo completo ha la licenza scelta dagli autori, indicata sulla pagina.
Letto il 2026-10-15T23:18:08.037Z dalla pagina https://arxiv.org/catchup/econ.GN/2026-09-15?abs=True (consentita dal robots.txt di arxiv.org, con il suo crawl-delay).