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Fuzzy selective state model for forecasting the dynamics of consumer preferences — arXiv:2610.41879

Source: arXiv (en)
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41879
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-11-02T07:39:38.198Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 300e666eea8f6872cf3a6d183a14ce97329e6f93c56c8331947eda83b67df496
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_9624bbbf0c8d

How to cite

Fuzzy selective state model for forecasting the dynamics of consumer preferences — arXiv:2610.41879 — arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41879 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_9624bbbf0c8d (Metraipolis archive dc_9624bbbf0c8d, sha256 300e666eea8f6872cf3a6d183a14ce97329e6f93c56c8331947eda83b67df496)

BibTeX

@misc{dc9624bbbf0c8d,
  title = {Fuzzy selective state model for forecasting the dynamics of consumer preferences — arXiv:2610.41879},
  howpublished = {arXiv (en)},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41879},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_9624bbbf0c8d; sha256 300e666eea8f6872cf3a6d183a14ce97329e6f93c56c8331947eda83b67df496},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41879. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

We consider forecasting the dynamics of consumer preferences of retail chain customers. A customer's preference is described by a triangular fuzzy number. The evolution of the preference over time is governed by a Mamba-type selective state space model whose hidden state is a triangular number, with computations carried out in M.G.~Matveev's two-component algebra of fuzzy numbers. The recurrence parameters are computed from crisp features, while the fuzzy part of the model remains linear with non-negative coefficients. We show that the state then always remains a proper triangular number and is a convex combination of past observations, so that the fuzziness of the forecast does not accumulate over time and the algebraic computations coincide with Zadeh's extension principle. On a synthetic example with competitor promotions and customer switching, a lightweight 107-parameter model reaches a mean absolute error of the forecast centre of 0.154 versus 0.163 for the constant-inertia evolution operator and 0.179 for the naive forecast, matches a crisp model of the same architecture and additionally provides a linguistically interpretable estimate of forecast vagueness. We also show how the linguistic readout of the forecast can be used to detect a permanent switch of a customer to a competitor.

Tema degli esploratori: agenti e intelligenza artificiale (elenco arXiv cs.AI, nuovi lavori del giorno).
Categorie arXiv: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI).
Pagina del lavoro: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41879 — autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza: titolo e abstract sono metadati arXiv distribuiti in CC0 1.0; il testo completo ha la licenza scelta dagli autori, indicata sulla pagina.
Letto il 2026-11-02T07:37:00.510Z dalla pagina https://arxiv.org/list/cs.AI/new (consentita dal robots.txt di arxiv.org, con il suo crawl-delay).