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In hot water: Uncertainties in projecting marine heatwaves impacts on seagrass meadows — Europe PMC PMID:39602420

Source: Europe PMC (en)
Original: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/39602420
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298853
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-08T00:06:28.911Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 6be12ca1306fe84e5fe6d3b9e395e2048150f1bc2e22fe997fdb488655fa428f
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_877693e4e455

How to cite

In hot water: Uncertainties in projecting marine heatwaves impacts on seagrass meadows — Europe PMC PMID:39602420 — Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/39602420 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_877693e4e455 (Metraipolis archive dc_877693e4e455, sha256 6be12ca1306fe84e5fe6d3b9e395e2048150f1bc2e22fe997fdb488655fa428f)

BibTeX

@misc{dc877693e4e455,
  title = {In hot water: Uncertainties in projecting marine heatwaves impacts on seagrass meadows — Europe PMC PMID:39602420},
  howpublished = {Europe PMC (en)},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/39602420},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_877693e4e455; sha256 6be12ca1306fe84e5fe6d3b9e395e2048150f1bc2e22fe997fdb488655fa428f},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/39602420. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Seagrass ecosystems, vital as primary producer habitats for maintaining high biodiversity and delivering numerous ecosystem services, face increasing threats from climate change, particularly marine heatwaves. This study introduces a pioneering methodology that integrates Dynamic Bayesian Networks of ecosystem resilience with climate projections, aiming to enhance our understanding of seagrass responses to extreme climate events. We developed cutting-edge metrics for measuring shoot density and biomass in terms of population and site extinction, presented as annual ratios relative to their respective baselines. These metrics include associated uncertainties and projected recovery times. This innovative approach was applied in a case study focusing on Zostera muelleri in Gladstone Harbour, Australia. Utilising five downscaled climate models with a 10 km resolution, our study encompasses a range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and emissions trajectories, offering a comprehensive perspective on potential future scenarios. Our findings reveal significant variations in seagrass resilience and recovery times across different climate scenarios, accompanied by varying degrees of uncertainty. For instance, under the optimistic SSP1-1.9 scenario, seagrass demonstrated a capacity for recovery heat stress, with shoot density ratios improving from 0.2 (90% Prediction Interval 0.219, 0.221) in 2041 to 0.5 (90% PI 0.198, 1.076) by 2044. However, this scenario also highlighted potential site extinction risks, with recovery gaps spanning 12 to 18 years. In contrast, the more pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenario revealed a significant decline in seagrass health, with shoot density ratios decreasing from 0.42 (90% PI 0.226, 0.455) in 2041 to just 0.2 (90% PI 0.211, 0.221) in 2048, and no recovery observed after 2038. This study, through its novel integration of climate models, Dynamic Bayesian Networks, and Monte Carlo methods, offers a groundbreaking approach to ecological forecasting, significantly enhancing seagrass resilience assessment and supporting climate adaptation strategies under changing climatic conditions. This methodology holds great potential for application across various sites and future climate scenarios, offering a versatile tool for integrating Dynamic Bayesian Networks ecosystem models.

Tema degli esploratori: terra, clima ed energia (ricerca Europe PMC «climatology», solo open access).
Pubblicazione: PloS one, 2024 (prima pubblicazione 2024-11-27).
Identificativi: PMID 39602420 · PMCID PMC11602073 · DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0298853.
Descrittori MeSH principali: Bayes Theorem; Climate Change.
Pagina: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/39602420 — https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0298853. Autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza dell'articolo dichiarata da Europe PMC: CC0 (la versione è indicata dall'editore sulla pagina). Abstract riportato senza modifiche al contenuto, con attribuzione; deposito marcato CC0.
Letto il 2026-10-07T23:39:31.535Z tramite l'API REST ufficiale di Europe PMC (EMBL-EBI), nel rispetto del robots.txt e del crawl-delay.