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Observation-Anchored Selective Assimilation for Longitudinal Tumor-State Proxy Forecasting in Post-Treatment Glioma — arXiv:2609.12435

Source: arXiv (en)
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12435
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-16T03:03:22.105Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 12fc6acbb8f08dd60d3029690f9bc58df651bbed5b5ae09530d267cf22a6b06d
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7e8a45a2db35

How to cite

Observation-Anchored Selective Assimilation for Longitudinal Tumor-State Proxy Forecasting in Post-Treatment Glioma — arXiv:2609.12435 — arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12435 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7e8a45a2db35 (Metraipolis archive dc_7e8a45a2db35, sha256 12fc6acbb8f08dd60d3029690f9bc58df651bbed5b5ae09530d267cf22a6b06d)

BibTeX

@misc{dc7e8a45a2db35,
  title = {Observation-Anchored Selective Assimilation for Longitudinal Tumor-State Proxy Forecasting in Post-Treatment Glioma — arXiv:2609.12435},
  howpublished = {arXiv (en)},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12435},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7e8a45a2db35; sha256 12fc6acbb8f08dd60d3029690f9bc58df651bbed5b5ae09530d267cf22a6b06d},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12435. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Post-treatment MRI in patients with glioma provides serial observations for updating patient-specific tumor-state proxy estimates, but variable appearances and trajectories complicate forecasting. We formulate forecasting as an observation-aware digital-twin update in which an intermediate observation anchors the patient-specific state. Among 203 patients and 594 follow-up time points, a predefined no-new-treatment criterion retained 120 of 236 candidate triplets, split into 81/24/15 training/validation/test triplets at the patient level. Each time point was represented by a continuous voxel-wise tumor-state proxy map in [0,1] derived from MRI lesion labels. A SegMamba-based single-step forecaster predicted update proposals from multimodal source-state tensors. Observation-Anchored Selective Assimilation (OASA) retained the observed intermediate proxy as the state anchor and selectively applied updates through a validation-selected tiered case-level rule and voxel-wise soft gate. We compared initial-scan forecasting, rollout without assimilation, latest-observation persistence, direct prediction, OASA, OASA + calibration, and morphological dilation. Checkpoints, OASA rules, and calibration thresholds were selected using validation data only. Across three seeds on 15 held-out test triplets, OASA maintained Dice at $\tau$ = 0.2 comparable to persistence (0.6071 $\pm$ 0.0025 vs. 0.6070) while yielding numerically higher Dice at $\tau$ = 0.5 (0.4269 $\pm$ 0.0079 vs. 0.3981), with a small RMSE increase. Calibration increased Dice at $\tau$ = 0.2 to 0.6178 $\pm$ 0.0025, increased false-positive (FP) support (11,836$\rightarrow$18,663), and reduced false-negative (FN) support (22,107$\rightarrow$17,536). This reflects near-threshold support calibration rather than improved biological predictive capability. Code is publicly available at this https URL .

Tema degli esploratori: agenti e intelligenza artificiale (retro-catalogo arXiv: annunci del 2026-09-14 in cs.AI).
Categorie arXiv: Machine Learning (cs.LG) ; Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI).
Pagina del lavoro: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12435 — autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza: titolo e abstract sono metadati arXiv distribuiti in CC0 1.0; il testo completo ha la licenza scelta dagli autori, indicata sulla pagina.
Letto il 2026-10-16T02:51:27.904Z dalla pagina https://arxiv.org/catchup/cs.AI/2026-09-14?abs=True (consentita dal robots.txt di arxiv.org, con il suo crawl-delay).