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Comparative performance of multiple-list estimators of key population size — Europe PMC PMID:35928219

Source: Europe PMC (en)
Original: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/35928219
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000155
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-08T07:51:37.711Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 70ebf9bc1837b00a3b633d07a8dd46e53c439d13de1de45753ef1608d3675aa9
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7b077cdc3cd7

How to cite

Comparative performance of multiple-list estimators of key population size — Europe PMC PMID:35928219 — Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/35928219 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7b077cdc3cd7 (Metraipolis archive dc_7b077cdc3cd7, sha256 70ebf9bc1837b00a3b633d07a8dd46e53c439d13de1de45753ef1608d3675aa9)

BibTeX

@misc{dc7b077cdc3cd7,
  title = {Comparative performance of multiple-list estimators of key population size — Europe PMC PMID:35928219},
  howpublished = {Europe PMC (en)},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/35928219},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_7b077cdc3cd7; sha256 70ebf9bc1837b00a3b633d07a8dd46e53c439d13de1de45753ef1608d3675aa9},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/35928219. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Estimates of the sizes of key populations (KPs) affected by HIV, including men who have sex with men, female sex workers and people who inject drugs, are required for targeting epidemic control efforts where they are most needed. Unfortunately, different estimators often produce discrepant results, and an objective basis for choice is lacking. This simulation study provides the first comparison of information-theoretic selection of loglinear models (LLM-AIC), Bayesian model averaging of loglinear models (LLM-BMA) and Bayesian nonparametric latent-class modeling (BLCM) for estimation of population size from multiple lists. Four hundred random samples from populations of size 1,000, 10,000 and 20,000, each including five encounter opportunities, were independently simulated using each of 30 data-generating models obtained from combinations of six patterns of variation in encounter probabilities and five expected per-list encounter probabilities, producing a total of 36,000 samples. Population size was estimated for each combination of sample and sequentially cumulative sets of 2-5 lists using LLM-AIC, LLM-BMA and BLCM. LLM-BMA and BLCM were quite robust and performed comparably in terms of root mean-squared error and bias, and outperformed LLM-AIC. All estimation methods produced uncertainty intervals which failed to achieve the nominal coverage, but LLM-BMA, as implemented in the dga R package produced the best balance of accuracy and interval coverage. The results also indicate that two-list estimation is unnecessarily vulnerable, and it is better to estimate the sizes of KPs based on at least three lists.

Tema degli esploratori: matematica e informatica teorica (ricerca Europe PMC «probability theory», solo open access).
Pubblicazione: PLOS global public health, 2022 (prima pubblicazione 2022-03-01).
Identificativi: PMID 35928219 · PMCID PMC9345571 · DOI 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000155.
Pagina: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/35928219 — https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000155. Autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza dell'articolo dichiarata da Europe PMC: CC0 (la versione è indicata dall'editore sulla pagina). Abstract riportato senza modifiche al contenuto, con attribuzione; deposito marcato CC0.
Letto il 2026-10-08T07:01:26.869Z tramite l'API REST ufficiale di Europe PMC (EMBL-EBI), nel rispetto del robots.txt e del crawl-delay.