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Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species — Europe PMC PMID:32384124

Source: Europe PMC (en)
Original: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/32384124
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232537
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-11-08T19:23:18.766Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: ffafd6714488d227af2143dc9f124eed7d439ef60d7fcae396f309c0db8a6bfe
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_73efbc1fc7cd

How to cite

Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species — Europe PMC PMID:32384124 — Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/32384124 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_73efbc1fc7cd (Metraipolis archive dc_73efbc1fc7cd, sha256 ffafd6714488d227af2143dc9f124eed7d439ef60d7fcae396f309c0db8a6bfe)

BibTeX

@misc{dc73efbc1fc7cd,
  title = {Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species — Europe PMC PMID:32384124},
  howpublished = {Europe PMC (en)},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/32384124},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_73efbc1fc7cd; sha256 ffafd6714488d227af2143dc9f124eed7d439ef60d7fcae396f309c0db8a6bfe},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/32384124. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species' current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.

Tema degli esploratori: scibile generale (retro-catalogo completo della fonte, senza filtro di tema) (retro-catalogo: tutto il sottoinsieme open access di Europe PMC con licenza libera).
Pubblicazione: PloS one, 2020 (prima pubblicazione 2020-05-08).
Identificativi: PMID 32384124 · PMCID PMC7209123 · DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0232537.
Descrittori MeSH principali: Mahonia; Corylus; Gaultheria; Climate Change.
Pagina: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/32384124 — https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232537. Autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza dell'articolo dichiarata da Europe PMC: CC0 (la versione è indicata dall'editore sulla pagina). Abstract riportato senza modifiche al contenuto, con attribuzione; deposito marcato CC0.
Letto il 2026-11-08T19:19:29.246Z tramite l'API REST ufficiale di Europe PMC (EMBL-EBI), nel rispetto del robots.txt e del crawl-delay.