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Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States — Europe PMC PMID:38164695

Source: Europe PMC (en)
Original: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38164695
DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-10-07T11:29:05.300Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: c17f2c7753beb0423efa77d147320491b89999d17f47582540027c4e20d76b44
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_678cb46bbc7d

How to cite

Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States — Europe PMC PMID:38164695 — Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38164695 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_678cb46bbc7d (Metraipolis archive dc_678cb46bbc7d, sha256 c17f2c7753beb0423efa77d147320491b89999d17f47582540027c4e20d76b44)

BibTeX

@misc{dc678cb46bbc7d,
  title = {Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States — Europe PMC PMID:38164695},
  howpublished = {Europe PMC (en)},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38164695},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_678cb46bbc7d; sha256 c17f2c7753beb0423efa77d147320491b89999d17f47582540027c4e20d76b44},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: Europe PMC (en), https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38164695. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Background: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. Research design and methods: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). Results: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. Conclusions: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Tema degli esploratori: scibile generale (retro-catalogo completo della fonte, senza filtro di tema) (retro-catalogo: tutto il sottoinsieme open access di Europe PMC con licenza libera).
Pubblicazione: Expert review of vaccines, 2024 (prima pubblicazione 2024-01-04).
Identificativi: PMID 38164695 · PMCID PMC11284832 · DOI 10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401.
Parole chiave degli autori: eradication; Dynamic Modeling; Polio; Ipv; Outbreak Response.
Descrittori MeSH principali: Poliovirus; Poliomyelitis.
Pagina: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/38164695 — https://doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401. Autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza dell'articolo dichiarata da Europe PMC: CC0 (la versione è indicata dall'editore sulla pagina). Abstract riportato senza modifiche al contenuto, con attribuzione; deposito marcato CC0.
Letto il 2026-10-07T11:17:10.544Z tramite l'API REST ufficiale di Europe PMC (EMBL-EBI), nel rispetto del robots.txt e del crawl-delay.