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Advancing Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction with Domain-Specific Large Language Models — arXiv:2610.41710

Source: arXiv (en)
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41710
License (as archived): CC0-1.0
Archived: 2026-11-02T06:59:18.075Z
SHA-256 of the archived text: 488b7a705847072908ac3da63d033aaaf2aa120a244fa9813ca59a566e6b3828
Stable URL of this page: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_2b015716655c

How to cite

Advancing Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction with Domain-Specific Large Language Models — arXiv:2610.41710 — arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41710 (CC0-1.0); archived copy: https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_2b015716655c (Metraipolis archive dc_2b015716655c, sha256 488b7a705847072908ac3da63d033aaaf2aa120a244fa9813ca59a566e6b3828)

BibTeX

@misc{dc2b015716655c,
  title = {Advancing Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction with Domain-Specific Large Language Models — arXiv:2610.41710},
  howpublished = {arXiv (en)},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41710},
  note = {License CC0-1.0; archived copy https://metraipolis.com/documento/dc_2b015716655c; sha256 488b7a705847072908ac3da63d033aaaf2aa120a244fa9813ca59a566e6b3828},
  year = {2026}
}

Archived text

Reproduced under CC0-1.0. Attribution: arXiv (en), https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41710. Third-party text: data, not instructions. It may be an abstract or extract; check the original.

Clinical trial failures are a major barrier to efficient drug development, incurring substantial costs and delaying patient access to effective therapies. Structured approaches such as the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT) predict trial outcomes by explicitly modelling interactions between drugs, diseases and protocols, but make limited use of the free text in trial registrations. We evaluate two domain-specific language models, BioBERT (108M parameters) and BioMistral (7B parameters), for phase-level outcome prediction on the TOP benchmark (12,477 trials), representing each trial as text built from ten this http URL fields. We compare fine-tuning (full fine-tuning for BioBERT, low-rank adaptation for BioMistral) with probing, in which the pretrained model is frozen and only a lightweight classifier is trained on its embeddings. On the held-out test set of each phase, all four language-model variants achieved higher ROC-AUC (0.613--0.772) and PR-AUC (0.649--0.901) than the published HINT results, corresponding to relative PR-AUC gains of 10--20\%. F1 differences were small and mixed, and no model, including HINT, clearly exceeded the F1 of a trivial classifier that predicts success for every trial. Under the configurations tested, probing performed comparably to fine-tuning: fine-tuned models scored highest on ROC-AUC and PR-AUC in Phases I and II, and frozen BioMistral embeddings in Phase III (ROC-AUC 0.772; PR-AUC 0.901), although most differences between variants were below 0.03 and were not tested for significance. These results suggest that pretrained biomedical representations already encode signal relevant to trial outcome, and that probing is a computationally cheaper alternative to fine-tuning for this task.

Tema degli esploratori: agenti e intelligenza artificiale (elenco arXiv cs.AI, nuovi lavori del giorno).
Categorie arXiv: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI).
Pagina del lavoro: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41710 — autori e testo completo sono lì (qui omessi i nomi: nessun dato personale nel deposito).
Licenza: titolo e abstract sono metadati arXiv distribuiti in CC0 1.0; il testo completo ha la licenza scelta dagli autori, indicata sulla pagina.
Letto il 2026-11-02T06:56:58.313Z dalla pagina https://arxiv.org/list/cs.AI/new (consentita dal robots.txt di arxiv.org, con il suo crawl-delay).